At least I do, when it is bad news. I’ve posted in August last year, that the situation in Libya – after Ghadaffi’s dead was anything but stable. It was obvious that the amount of weapons and infighting among the “rebels” was not a base for stability and it wasn’t.
I was, however, in perfect ignorance of the local conditions, so that I could not be any more specific than giving commonplace arguments. It wasn’t a hard guess that oil would be among the culprits – in this case with the added twist that the oil-rich regions of the country have been neglected by the former government and now demand autonomy. The central government, of course, wants to have no part is such federalism and promised to deter the autonomy, if necessary (and it will probably be necessary) with force.
It will take a miracle to stop the situation from deteriorating … and those are in short supply.