The UK met office released an interesting press statement last Christmas – and I’m certainly not the first to point it out.
The latest decadal prediction suggests that global temperatures over the next five years are likely to be a little lower than predicted from the previous prediction issued in December 2011.
It is obvious that this must be a British weather service, because this is the understatement of the century (so far).
The following picture is the global temperature forecast (blue line) of the UK Met Office of December 2011. It shows a forecast for the following 10 years. The computer models of the medium forecast for the year 2017 is about 0.4K higher than today (black lines). The computer models suggested that monstrous rise of up to 0.6K was absolutely possible, yet anything less than a 0.2K rise was not.
This is a bold claim. A rise larger than the rise of temperatures in the last 60 years within the next 6 years was deemed to be much more likely than the possibility that temperatures would simply stay as they were in the year 2011.
The updated version the same graph in December 2012 shows a completely different picture. First of all, the forecast no longer extends for 10 years, but only 5 years. That is why 2017 was chosen as the reference point. Secondly, the medium forecast for the year 2017 shows a rise of 0.1K, with predictions ranging between -0.05K and +0.25K.
Just four weeks ago, anyone who would have doubted the Met Office forecast for 2017 of +0.2K…+0.6K was a denialist. Two weeks later, the forecast for the same year is -0.05K…+0.25K. The intervals almost do not overlap.
This is what the endgame of a pathological science looks like.